The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth have doubled in the past few weeks.
According to NASA, the asteroid—large enough to wipe out an entire city—now has an increased likelihood of striking Earth in 2032.
In a recent update, the space agency reported that the probability of impact has risen to 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an asteroid since Apophis in 2004, which had a 2.7% chance of collision.
Over the past few months, the estimated risk of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth has steadily climbed.
In late January, the asteroid was given a 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. That probability increased to one in 43 on February 7. By Monday, the odds had risen again to one in 38—the same as landing a single number on a roulette wheel.
While an impact can’t be ruled out, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for alarm.
Based on its reflected light, scientists estimate that the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters wide. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), asteroids of this size typically collide with Earth once every few thousand years and could cause significant localized destruction.
The exact potential impact site remains uncertain. However, the International Asteroid Warning Network suggests the possible impact zone could stretch across northern South America, the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, South Asia, and parts of Africa.
If the asteroid were to strike Earth in 2032, experts warn it could generate severe blast damage extending up to 30 miles from the impact site.
In January, asteroid YR4 was assigned a level 3 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating that while a close encounter with Earth was possible, it primarily warranted continued observation by astronomers.
The scale, which ranges from 0 to 10, only confirms an impact when an asteroid is rated 8, 9, or 10, with higher numbers signifying greater potential damage.
According to the ESA, scientists will continue analyzing the asteroid’s size using the James Webb Space Telescope to better assess its potential impact. They emphasized that refining the size estimate is crucial, as the potential destruction from a 40-meter asteroid would be significantly different from that of a 90-meter asteroid.
In February 2013, a similarly sized asteroid entered Earth’s atmosphere, lighting up the morning sky over Chelyabinsk, Russia.
The dramatic event was captured on numerous traffic cameras, dashcams, and security footage throughout the area.
Weighing approximately 10,000 tons, the asteroid released an estimated 500 kilotons of energy before exploding mid-air, injuring over 1,000 people.
Several months later, a fragment of the meteorite was recovered from a lake in Russia.
